5.1 Simulation Interactions

In this simulation, Rifaat al-Assad, the brother of Syrian president Hafiz al-Assad, decided to assume control of Syria for several reasons. First, and possibly somewhat out of character, the role playing Hafiz al-Assad was being relatively inactive in the simulation, and Rifaat decided that Syria should have a larger involvement. Second, and more in character, he had grand plans to form a major alliance of strongly anti-Israel Arab leaders and use Syria as the launching pad for a major offensive against Israel. The following sequence of messages shows how he accomplished his aims by first securing alliances, confirming the coup with the simulation Controllers, managing international perception of the coup, and, ultimately, faltering under the counter-coup.

To: Bill Clinton
From: Rifaat al-Assad

Greetings friend. You nor I have never spoken before until now. I am
writing to you from my home in Pasadena where I have been vacationing
for a number of months now. I try to get to America as often as I can,
when i have the time that is.

I have some information for you Mr Clinton, It has come to my attention
through my various aides in and around the Gulf states that King Hussein
of Jordan has gained access to your secret files and messages...

In return for supplying this information. I ask a boon of you. The current
Syrian president Hafiz al Assad is gravely ill. He can no longer function
in any official capacity. During the time of his reign, relations between
Syria and the US have been strained, particularly during the cold war. As
for my part, I have constantly been referred to as a Saudi and an American
puppet, why not make the repartee official. I hereby ask of you to write
to the controllers of the sim pledging your support for my replacing my
ill-brother as president of Syria... Please write to Control and pledge
your support for my new (US friendly) regime.

To:   Saddam Hussein
From: Rifaat al-Assad

Greetings brother. The time for the coup is at hand. Control will mail
you asking you whether or not you will support me in it, I'm sure that
you will, however. Our anti-western alliance (myself, you, Rafsanjani
and Gaddafi) has been cemented. All that needs to be done now is for me
to gain power...

To:   Control
From: Saddam Hussein

Iraq has decided after many formal negotiations with Rifaat al-Assad
that we will support his move to overthrow his brother, and gain control
over the Syrian people. We believe this move to be in the best interests
of Syria and the Middle East as we see it.

To:   Rifaat al-Assad
From: Mu'ammar Qaddafi

We write to you in the spirit of friendship and mutual support that our
two nations have enjoyed for some time now. Be Assured that the Libyan
Arab Jamahiriya wishes for this situation to continue and hope that the
Syrian government continues to involve Libya in diplomatic discussions
involving Israel, Palestine, the Kurds and Arab unity.  Libya is in a
position to help you and hope that we can work together to drive out
the infidel Israelis and their imperialist Western allies.


To:   Jacques Chirac
From: Rifaat al-Assad

Bonjour, Ca'va ?

Upon hearing of your support for my push I am driven to ask you if
there is anything I can do for yourself and your interests when I gain
power ... let me know If I can be of any assistance (i.e. contacts with
Gaddafi could ensure a substantial diversion in the actions of the GIA).

To:   Bill Clinton, Madeleine Albright, CIA,
      King Hussein, Sfeir, Netanyahu, Arafat, CNN
From: Chirac

French intelligence has for some time been aware of the likelihood of
a coup in Syria by Rifaat al-Assad. I am sure you have likewise been
appraised of the situation.

The French government feels it is now time to speak out and voice our
support for this move. The administration of Hafiz al-Assad has for some
time been a thorn in the side of the chance of a peaceful resolution to
the Arab-Israeli conflict, and I feel that Syria under this new regime
may be able to assist in our collective effort to end the terrorist
threat of the Hizbollah, and improve relations with Israel.

I call on all parties to support this coup and the revived spirit of a
peaceful resolution to our problem it brings.

To:   Syrian Muslim Brotherhood
From: Rifaat al-Assad

(To make things official). I think we both know that it is in our best
interests to keep in friendly contact with each-other for the up-coming
mobilisation on the Israeli border. 

My regime WILL NOT BE A MILITARY ONE. I have achieved executive power
through legal and peaceful means..

To:   Maronite Patriarch Sfeir
From: Rifaat al-Assad

Greetings brother...

Firstly, your worries concerning Hizbollah. I may not have made my plans
clear in my last communication. When I said that I was to offer them
positions in my border guard, I mean to do so in such a way that I have
trusted officers keeping an eye on them, making sure they behave etc.

Concerning Hariri, I like your idea of a unity govt, to keep things
stable, both in Damascus and Beirut. An idea such as this would fit
perfectly into the framework of the Yeesevenbee (E7B) Alliance.

The Controllers permitted the coup to proceed, after warning Hafiz al-Assad that it was imminent and receiving no response. In the following example messages, Rifaat al-Assad reports the coup to the media and attempts to gain international support. The coup story was never reported by CNN, and so he had to use his own means of alerting potential allies.

To:   CNN
From: Rifaat al-Assad

My forces have surrounded my brother's stronghold at Aleppo, sortie's
into the streets of the rural town are being conducted on the hour. We
expect to uncover my brother's hiding spot within a few hours.

It would also be helpful if you could declare the official existence
of the AFC- The Arabic Freedom Council. The council consists of: Syria,
Libya, Iran, Iraq - head of state involvement. On a smaller level, many
bureaucrats and academics are involved (Kaddoumi etc). If you chose not
to publicly broadcast our existence, then we'll do it ourselves, it is
of no matter..

To:   CNN and many world leaders
From: Rifaat al-Assad

***COUP UPDATE***

Greetings and salutations to you all.

In mailing this communication I hereby declare myself to be the new
President of the Arab Republic of Syria (certified by control). Only
hours ago, my coalition forces of my own loyal defence companies and
the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood stormed the presidential compound in
Damascus. We encountered little resistance during this exercise. The
state of the presidential suite indicates a hurried and desperate retreat
on the part of my brother Hafiz, who at this stage has evaded capture.

Some might ask how did I overcome the might of his special forces
batallion surrounding the compound? This was done via the SyrianMB who
had been holding secret talks with the upper echelons of Hafiz's guard
for a number of weeks. Many of the guard, although of alowite origin
are believed to be discontent with the current regime and have taken on
Sunni sympathies.

The following message shows that some important interaction takes place off-line. The E7B mentioned in the message is a building at Macquarie University.

To:   Controllers
From: Rifaat al-Assad

OK here's the deal:

In an attempt to compete with the already established power bloc
comprising the various Israeli factions, The Americans, Saudi's and
Jordanians, a secret gathering was held this morning in a small Syrian
town known as E7B.  The parties taking part in the discussion included:

	Iranian Prime Minister Heshemi Rafsanjani
	Libyan leader Mu'ammar Qaddafi
	Iraqi president Saddam Hussein
	Yours truly Rifaat al Assad.

A very interesting group of people I'm sure you will agree. For the most
part, the meeting consisted of trying to convince Rafsanjani and Saddam
to sit in the same room together, but to no avail.

The four of us (and our various aligned terrorist groups - Hamas,
SyrianMB, Hizbollah) have decided to pool our resources together in
an effort to stave off what we believe to be an attempt to discredit
and disempower the Arabic peoples, recent American actions in Iran are
testimony to this. In practical terms our alliance consists mainly of:

1. Military support - in terms of arms and training.  2. Sharing of
Strategic knowledge (mabye not between Iran and Iraq) 3. A combined
unilateral anti-western, anti-Israeli doctrine.

In order for this alliance to come to it's full fruition, control must
soon acknowledge me as the new (or temporary) LEADER (not pres) of Syria..

On occasion, the intensity of the simulation can cause personal conflicts among the players, as the following example shows. In such cases, the Controllers have an extremely important role in calming the players.

To: Control1
From: Rifaat al-Assad

I know you said to write to "control" but this letter is a bit outside the
sim. It's something I'd prefer to talk to you in person about but you're
not online or around and it needs urgent attention.

It's pretty much become open knowledge that the Sim (OZ wise) is turning
into a personal vendetta, with the players playing Mossad, King Hussein,
Clinton, Netanyahu, etc. forming their own little scheming bloc with the aim
to wipe out myself and the girls playing Rafsanjani. Having been around
political circles in various incarnations I can understand these things and
know best how to deal with them, but I'm afraid that the lines between
character and player are becoming increasingly blurred, with the
aforementioned bloc playing as a group of buddies - wheeling and dealing on
a personal level, not on the level of their characters.

A few personal attacks have been launched at me personally (ie Anti-semite)
.... It is things like this where people get dangerously emotional.
Naturally Rifaat al-Assad has no love for Jews/Israeli's so I portray that
in my character. I take grave offence however at the notion, that I (Mat) am
anti-semitic. Certainly I am very pro-palestianian and anti-zionist - but by
no means can I be likened to a David Irving..

Possibly somewhat out of character, the Israeli Prime Minister expressed support for Rifaat's coup. This naturally caused some consternation among his Rifaat's allies. This example shows the political "footwork" required to placate them. The reference to the University Bar indicates that some off-line discussions also took place on this matter.

To:   Saddam Hussein
From: Rifaat al-Assad

Greetings brother and thank you for your support and congratulations.

I encourage you to rest assured about my stance on the Israelis. Their
willingness to co-operate with me is something of a mystery. I was
approached by one of Netenyahu's aides whilst working in Muhammeds Uni
Bar and was told by him that at the Amman conference, they all decided to
support me on the recommendation of Chirac. Chirac is one of my strongest
supporters so I assume he convinced them that I'm a workable personage.

Beliefs like this shall only aid us in the coming conflict. No-one will
expect the initial assault to some from Damascus, will they...?

The above examples show that students think about their responses to simulation events, and, while the language they use is no necessarily always in character, their manoeuverings are well-considered and demonstrate a reasonably mature attitude to diplomacy.

Some communication is out of character, but nevertheless provides an extremely useful contribution to the learning environment. The following demonstrates how students offer support to each other:

To: King Fahd
From: CIA

I understand your frustration 100%.  You're doing a great job in your
role, and it's quite frustrating to see other people not to.

Re: Syria.  the coup did not start out as a bad idea at all.  When Assad
was sick in the past, one of his brothers did try to overthrow his
regime.  They had missiles stationed around Damascus, and the whole bit.
Assad, however, was able to regroup.

In the sim, Rifat didn't do a very realistic "coup," and the
"counter-coup" by Hafez leaves serious questions behind.  However, you
must keep in mind, that we're doing an exercise here.  Although it's
frustrating, you must continue doing your best.  Withdrawing from the
Conference is NOT an option.  Believe me.

I played a role 2 years ago, if possible, w/ even more intensity as you
play yours.  I was doing the sim 8 hours/day, and at a couple of points
I cracked; i couldn't take it.  You manage to control yourself, and I
think it's very respectable.

I can give you only one piece of advice.  Please, take it easy, don't
anger yourself unnecessarily.  Write down the position King Fahd would
take in your place, and that's it.  OK?  Mail me if you need further
assistance.